CarryCurve / US Treasuries

US Treasury carry & roll-down — where is an investor best paid to sit?

Source USD curve Bootstrapped yesterday
Holding horizon

USD — total expected return (basis points) against tenor (years), for a 1M holding horizon (1 month), computed under a static-curve assumption. Source: US Department of the Treasury (bootstrapped). Sweet spot marked.

Sweet spot (1M free; longer horizons require Pro)
Total / Carry / Rolldown are gross bps over the row's holding horizon under a static-curve assumption — not annualised.
HorizonTenorTotalCarryRolldownBucketPct (10y)Pro
1M 20.0y 58.4 bps 44.8 13.6 15-20y Locked
3M Pro Subscribe to Pro to see 3M sweet spot, carry, rolldown, bucket and 10y percentile. Locked
6M Pro Subscribe to Pro to see 6M sweet spot, carry, rolldown, bucket and 10y percentile. Locked
1Y Pro Subscribe to Pro to see 1Y sweet spot, carry, rolldown, bucket and 10y percentile. Locked
Top 5 tenors at 1M
Bps over the 1M horizon (not annualised).
#TenorTotalCarryRolldown
1 20.0y 58.4 44.8 13.6
2 19.5y 57.4 44.4 13.0
3 19.0y 56.5 44.1 12.4
4 18.5y 55.6 43.8 11.9
5 18.0y 54.8 43.4 11.3